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Our 42nd year of publishing The International Observer

VIEWING THE WORLD

Türkiye’s interest in joining organizations with strong Chinese and Russian participation is not so much an ambition to be widely represented in multi-nation groups but determination to deepen ties with the East, declared President Recep Erdoğan on 18 September.  

Abroad, China is showing its friendly face, especially in the less developed world and in neighboring Central Asia, ready to help, buy local products and generously deliver large quantities of needed equipment, such as tractors, crane, vehicles, and not forgetting special gifts for those in power. 

The international world order is “under threat in a way we haven’t seen since the Cold War.” The warning written by the chiefs of the British and United States intelligence agencies, the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) and the Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), was openly published in the Financial Times in September. Both found that they have not seen any evidence of the Russian president’s “grip on power” weakening and see the rise of China as the main intelligence and geopolitical challenge of the century.  

Israel’s policy toward the West Bank is dooming any prospect of a two-state solution with the Palestinians, using  administrative and legal steps to change the territory’s geography, the UN Secretary General declared on 17 July [July, p. 11655].  

Hungary’s Prime Minister Victor Orbán, currently  holding the six-month rotating presidency of the European Council, is severely criticized by other European Union (EU) members, allies of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) and by the United States government. Issues of great concern are

·        His trip to Moscow in July and the conspiratorial appearance of  a secret meeting with the Russian president and officials;

·        His opposition to Ukraine’s plan to join NATO and to NATO’s military support of Ukraine;

·        His closing relationship with the former US president and implied support of the Republican Party presidential candidate;

·        Sowing chaos and pushing his anti-democratic foreign policy vision;

·        Causing EU Commissioners to avoid or boycott informal meetings held by the Council head;

·        Concerns that his government’s easing of visa restrictions for Belarusians and Russians will  fuel espionage in the EU.

  • September 2024
  • Abroad, China is showing its friendly face, especially in the less developed world and in neighboring Central Asia, ready to help, buy local products and generously deliver large quantities of needed equipment, such as tractors, crane, vehicles, and not forgetting special gifts for those in power.

    As long as the conflict between Israel and Palestine is continuing, the region will remain unstable, many of the world’s political leaders, observers, and press analysts and commentators have known all along.

    Iran  is also involved and arms deliveries from China, North Korea and Russia are keeping the Islamic militants supplied with arms and equipment. It is neither hidden nor new that cultural and historical attitudes are not helping to resolve the conflict.  For years, the observation has been around that the situation could be changed and improved if new and realistic leaders would rise. As long as Iran is ruled by narrow-minded leaders and pro-democratic movements are barred, the outlook is bleak.

    Israel’s current prime minister who proclaims that the Palestinian West Bank is his “homeland” and because of numerous suspicious dealings in the past is being prosecuted and will cling to his position at all cost.  

    The Palestinian Authority’s rule is hampered by the large number of militant movements, some of them feuding with each other, an aging leadership and an urgent and vital need for effective governing.  

    There are also Iraq, Syria, and Yemen with their problems which unfortunately do not stay behind their borders but also affect regional peace and progress.

    August 2024

    Temporarily deflecting public attention from preparations for the Summer Olympics in France, the US presidential candidate of  the Republic Party Donald John Trump Sr., campaigning in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 13 July around 1800 hours when addressing voters, escaped assassination when a bullet struck his right ear.  The assailant was shot dead by the security team. On 18 July, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the nominee introduced his vice presidential candidate, John David “JD” Vance, junior US Senator of Ohio and lawyer.  Not unexpected, on 21 July, President Joseph  Robinette “Joe” Biden Jr. withdrew his candidacy and ended his presidential reelection campaign. By month’s end, Vice President Ms. Kamala Devi Harris, lawyer and 23 years younger than the incumbent, was assured of formal presidential nomination by the Democratic Party National Convention.                  

    While the conflict raised  in the  Gaza Strip in October 2023 is feared widening other conflagrations in the volatile Middle East and large parts of the world are hit by heat waves, fires and landslides, government attention also focused on an attempted assassination of a presidential candidate  in the United States, withdrawal of its president from possible reelection, and changes in France, Iran and the United Kingdom:

    ·         The French prime minister resigned and is heading the government temporarily until a new minister assumes office;

    ·         Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian,  a cardiac surgeon, took office as President of Iran; and

    ·         Sir Keir Starmer of the Labour Party replaced the Prime Minister of the Conservative Party in the United Kingdom.

    Temporarily deflecting public attention from preparations for the Summer Olympics in France, the US presidential candidate of  the Republic Party Donald John Trump Sr., campaigning in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 13 July around 1800 hours when addressing voters, escaped assassination when a bullet struck his right ear.  The assailant was shot dead by the security team. On 18 July, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the nominee introduced his vice presidential candidate, John David “JD” Vance, junior US Senator of Ohio and lawyer.  Not unexpected, on 21 July, President Joseph  Robinette “Joe” Biden Jr. withdrew his candidacy and ended his presidential reelection campaign. By month’s end, Vice President Ms. Kamala Devi Harris, lawyer and 23 years younger than the incumbent, was assured of formal presidential nomination by the Democratic Party National Convention.                   

    July 2024

    Currently public attention seems to be sticking to the meeting of Sino-Russian leaders and elections in Europe, Iran, and the United States of America, as tension and troubles are developing in West Africa. Centered on the three countries where the military overthrew civilian governments between 2000 and 2023, Burkina Faso, Mali and Niger, concerns foremost occupy the Economic Community of West African States that the return to civilian governance keeps getting delayed and that the coups d’état may be copied in neighboring countries, all taking place while the influence and presence of Russian para-militaries are spreading. Opposition politicians in Mali which lost its elected government in 2020, took the initiative on 25 May when they reminded the military that they failed to hold the promised elections and that the new civilian transition government formed in exile “is the only legitimate one in Mali,” as reported by Radio France Internationale (RFI) from Geneva.

    President Xi Jinping, between presenting himself  often in regions of the People’s Republic of China and conducting inspections, is actively seeking to build up and expand influence worldwide. New is the relentless demonstration of military supremacy, especially around Taiwan, but also his renewed effort to catch up with the military power of the United States when he announced the largest reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army as reported by Xinhua News Agency on 19 April.

    Part of this drive is to boost relations with Central Asian countries, visibly supporting the Russian Federation, helping African countries by buying their resources, and presenting the Five Principles of Coexistence on 28 June as a way of both convincing doubters of good intentions and demonstrating them:

    1.    Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity;

    2.    Mutual non-aggression;

    3.    Mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs;

    4.    Equality and mutual benefit; and

    5.    Peaceful coexistence.

    At home, control over the population and their attitudes and activities is tightened under the pretext of enforcing public security and morality although reports are now circulating about rising xenophobic attitudes and utterances and their toleration by authorities.

    June 2024

     In democratically governed countries, the verdict of a judge or jury in a criminal case stands when it is reached, unless on appeal it is changed and sometimes revoked. The former President of the United States of America, Donald John Trump Sr. (1917-1921), 77, of the Republican Party, has become the first US chief executive convicted of a crime. Charged with  falsifying business records in 2016 to cover up a sex scandal, the trial by the New York State Supreme Court in New York County (Manhattan) opened on 22 April with 12 jurors and six alternates and ended on 31 May with the defendant found guilty on 34 counts. Sentencing is scheduled for 11 July, reported The New York Times. The outcome of three other criminal trials is pending: retention of classified documents and two separate proceedings on attempting to stay in office after losing the presidential election in 2020.

    Not unexpected, the candidate in the November presidential election, blasted the conviction in what he called a” political trial” and reclaimed his innocence. His supporters of the extreme party wing immediately started exploiting the situation by painting their candidate a “martyr,” while other Republican Party members were less vocal and a few either stood back from criticizing the outcome or even agreed with it. Obviously, a large number of citizens, convinced by the number of pending legal actions against Trump, are waiting for his disappearance from the 2024 campaign. Abroad, a number of governments do not regret the jurors’ decisions but refrain from intruding into a domestic US matter while others, including extreme right-wing partisans and opponents of US global policies and actions, are eager to take the side of the convicted felon.

    June 2024

     

    In democratically governed countries, the verdict of a judge or jury in a criminal case stands when it is reached, unless on appeal it is changed and sometimes revoked. The former President of the United States of America, Donald John Trump Sr. (1917-1921),77, of the Republican Party, has become the first US chief executive convicted of a crime. Charged with falsifying business records in 2016 to cover up a sex scandal, the trial by the New York State Supreme Court in New York County (Manhattan) opened on 22 April with 12 jurors and six alternates and ended on 31 May with the defendant found guilty on 34 counts [Mar. 2023, p. 11076]. Sentencing is scheduled for 11 July, reported The New York Times. The outcome of three other criminal trials is pending: retention of classified documents [July 2023, p. 11230] and two separate proceedings on attempting to stay in office after losing the presidential election in 2020.  

    Not unexpected, the candidate in the November presidential election, blasted the conviction in what he called a” political trial” and reclaimed his innocence. His supporters of the extreme party wing immediately   started exploiting the situation by painting their candidate a “martyr,” while other Republican Party members were less vocal and a few either stood back from criticizing the outcome or even agreed with it. Obviously, a large number of citizens, convinced by the number of pending legal actions against Trump, are waiting for his disappearance from the 2024 campaign. Abroad, a number of governments do not regret the jurors’ decisions but refrain from intruding into a domestic US matter while others, including extreme right-wing partisans and opponents of US global policies and actions, are eager to take the side of the convicted felon.

    May 2024

     

    Europe must make a new and strong effort to stay united, secure, and democratic, the President of France Emmanuel Macron warned when he addressed its leaders and people in Paris at La Sorbonne university on 25 April. His admonition that Europe must never be ’vassal’ of the United States of America naturally raised concerns there and took some aback, overlooking that democratic rule in the US is threatened by homegrown extremists in elections in November. Without mentioning that development, such a threat would also negatively affect the other side of the Atlantic.  

    In the two-hour speech, the president asked for a ‘credible’ defense strategy and a joint force, to meet the migration challenge with dignity, raise attention to the Mediterranean region and Africa, lead the ecological transition, lead adaptation to the digital world, and make Europe an economic and monetary power.

    April 2024

    Public interest around the world in international and domestic power plays by the People’s Republic of China is remaining at an all-time high. Equally significant is how its ruler since 2012,  Xi Jinping, 70, is presented. The official news agency Xinhua, for some time now, is reporting increasingly on Xi as a ‘man of culture,’ as evident by his show of interest but notably by continuous discussion of his newly published literary works. His travels around the country, opportunities to show his closeness to the people and to nature as when he is photographed together with a group of school children planting new trees, are not new and belong to the ruler’s tool of inspection trips around the vast country. But observers are pointing to new strong efforts to stress Xi’s literary efforts and the nearly mandatory study and discussion of his writings by Communist Party members and state officials down to cells in remote parts of the country. Any sign of public or internal criticism remains missing in the absence of a free press and freely elected civic organizations and parties. 

    March 2024

    The make-up of the political scene in the new year, 2024, will be changing substantially, considering the significance of 64 pending elections, including those of the European Parliament, and in India, Indonesia, Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, and the United States of America. The outcome could increase chances of a world becoming more unstable if the trend of democratic backslides continues, predicts the EUobserver.Mexico, Pakistan, Russia, South Africa, and the United States of America. The outcome could increase chances of a world becoming more unstable if the trend of democratic backslides continues, predicts the EUobserver.

    February 2024

    Ten major conflicts will continue weakening global peace and stability, including those of Israeli retaliation against the Palestinian attack of 7 October 2023 from inside Gaza, and the Russian aggression in Ukraine. Others requiring constant attention, according to the 2024 Watchlist of the International Crisis Group (ICG), include the Middle East and the Sahel, US and China rivalry, Armenia-Azerbaijan, Burma/Myanmar, Ethiopia, Haiti, and Sudan.

    January 2024

     

    Grave concern is rapidly rising about indications that the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not only causing more civilian casualties but opening the wider region to resumption of dormant conflicts or starting new ones. Governments in Jordan and Turkey and those of the European Union (EU), France, United Kingdom, and the United States are considering positive preventative steps to keep Iran and the Youthi rebels in Yemen from exploiting the turmoil and are anxious for Lebanon and the Red Sea becoming less favorite targets.

    December 2023

     

    The renewed eruption of conflict in the Middle East over the unresolved state of Palestinians–dragging on for more than 70 years –is practically touching public life almost everywhere in the world, a unique and not the normal reaction to wars.

     Certainly Arab neighbor countries are taking sides as are Jewish communities in regions where they are represented in large numbers and above all free to voice their views.

    November 2023

    Palestinian new massive sneak attack on Israel echoes worldwide. Barely five months after a ceasefire between militants in Palestinian Gaza and Israeli troops, one of the major Palestinian militant groups, the Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS), on 7 October launched a major terror assault on Israel with thousands of rockets. Supported by the Gaza-based Islamic Jihad Movement of Palestine, the surprise attack immediately caused hundreds of Israeli civilian deaths and over a thousand of  injured  persons. Numerous Israelis were taken hostage and brutally mistreated, including children, reported news organizations. Israel’s government was taken by surprise, but formally  declared war on the next day and ordered Gazans to leave the area, followed by continuing aerial bombing, missile attacks and artillery firing.  Israel’s prime ministerr is rejecting dermands for a ceasefire and by month’s end Israeli forces are entering Gaza with orders to destroy HAMAS.

    Away from the region, especially in countries with substantial numbers of  Jewish and Muslim residents and supporters, demonstrations in defense of Israel and freedom and independence for Palestinians are occurring almost daily, frequently marred by clashes with opponents.

     October  2023

    The General Secretary of the Communist Party of China (CPC) and State Chairman Xi Jinping is following in the footsteps of Iranian ayatollahs who use the morality police to make sure Iranians, mainly women, are not wearing foreign, speak un-Islamic apparel. The People’s Republic is in the process to ban clothes that “are detrimental  to the spirit of Chinese people” after the Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s Congress (NPC) reviewed public security laws during its 5th session, 4-8 September.  The people have long been denied human rights and political freedom and it is no surprising that this latest move is widely criticized. From comments made, the main offender appear to be Japanese kimonos and costumes that are offending. Traditional clothing of ethnic groups have long been suspect if they seemed to boost cultural differences. Even before the planned changes, police have interfered and arrested people as troublemakers for what they wore or showedoff, such as unusual hair styles. 

    Since 12 September, both US president and ex-president are facing hearings and trials. The Speaker of the House of Representatives, giving in to far-right Republican Party legislators, opened an inquiry into impeaching President Joseph R. “Joe” Biden for charges, so-far unspecified. Seen by many as revenge for[JHW1]  prosecuting the former president, the move will become a hunt for evidence, regardless how vague and weak.  


     September  2023 

    Barely a month has gone by when West Africa and the world faced a new military coup d’état, on 30 August in Gabon]. The country is not seriously threatened by insurgency and hosting French military forces. But the prolonged presence of a head of state for nearly 14 years – and by no means one of the continent’s longest serving rulers – was one reason for some Gabonese to wish for a change. Especially when the military coup d’état on 30 August dramatically and ostentatiously took effect within minutes of announcement of the second and controversial reelection of the president. Some benefit from oil revenues but poverty is widespread and political recurring demonstrations and unrest are usually linked to the presence and deep influence of just one family of presidents. The latest junta head has promised to restore civilian rule and holding free elections.  

    There is little doubt that the suspicious death of  the chief of the Wagner Group mercenaries is seen by many in Russia as a warning from the Kremlin to copycats not to interfere. Observers abroad noted especially that reaction to Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s rebellion on 23 June was first met with condemnation and then with two months of feigned restraint and a public effort not to appear bent on punishment.

    August  2023 

    The military took over another West African state. After coping with four major Islamist insurgencies for the past 16 years, Niger lost its elected President Mohamed Bazoum, 63 years, and government on 26 July when the presidential guard commander who had protected him since 2011 betrayed him and country. In the evening before 26 July 2023, the guard locked the presidential palace in Niamey with president, family, and staff inside. On the 26th, presidential palace and ministries were blocked off by military vehicles and persons approaching were sent away, according to Al Jazeera. 

    The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), United Nations (UN, European Union (EU), France, Russia, and the United States of America immediately called for the president’s release and ceding of power.  

    On 27 July, the commander of Niger’s Defense and Security Forces (FDS) changed his position and supported the military coup d’état by the so-called National Council for the Safeguarding of the Country (Conseil national pour la sauvegarde de la patrie) (CNSP) and General Abdourahmane Tchiani, 62 years, who appointed himself the council’s President. On 28 July, he appeared on television and declared that “Niger needed to change course to avoid the gradual and inevitable demise.”

    Later, newly found supporters of the president’s ouster marched in the streets, denounced France, the country’s main source of aid, waving Russian flags.  

    Niger is a poor and fragile country, located between Burkina Faso and Mali, both headed by members of the military who overthrown their elected governments during the last three years. It is noteworthy that Russia’s Wagner Group PMC (GV) mercenaries is active in neighboring Mali since 2021 and may soon appear in Niger. The country is also the world’s seventh biggest producer of uranium, according to the World Nuclear Association (WNA), a radioactive metal in great demand by Russia and others.  

    The Russian Wagner Group PMC (GV) of mercenaries has not disappeared. Nor has its head Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin who although having been investigated by Russian authorities for trying to mount a coup d’état, reappeared in Russia and even was in contact with President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Those GV mutineers who moved to Belarus [June 2023, p. 11189] are now being used by the host’s president to threaten his neighbors, especially Poland where borders were placed under tighter surveillance to prevent the infiltration of undercover GV mercenaries.  

    After decades of chilly relations between Greece and Tűrkiye and a minimum of direct exchanges, their leaders met on 12 June and agreed to resume talks in the coming months, reported Al Jazeera from Vilnius. The Greek prime minister and the Turkish president had met on the sidelines of the summit meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) where Turkey dropped its opposition to membership of  Sweden.

    July 2023 

    A planned coup d’état in Russia that soldiers-for-hire, mercenaries, launched in the last week of June, was stopped. Its key target, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, President of the Russian Federation since 2012, lost no time on 26 June in an Address to citizens of Russia

    • To declare that “decisions to neutralize the emerged threat were made instantly”;
    • Noting that the majority of Wagner Group “soldiers and commanders” are also Russian Patriots;
    • Stressing that “steps were taken to avoid spilling blood”;
    • To express gratitude to Wagner Group soldiers and commanders who chose not to engage in fratricidal bloodshed;
    • Offered the opportunity to continue service to Russia;
    • To keep his promise to those who want to go to Belarus; and
    • Expressed his gratitude to Alexander Lukashenko, President of Belarus.

    By mid-June, probably some Russian generals and US intelligence had learned that Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group PMC (GV) of mercenaries supporting Russia’s attack on Ukraine and its conflicts in Africa and Syria, was planning armed action against the military. By 23 June, authorities had launched a criminal probe of him, and Russian generals accused Prigozhin of trying to mount a coup d’état on Putin. Prigozhin also accused the Minister of Defense Sergei Shoigu of ordering a rocket attack on GV field camps in Ukraine.  

    On 23 June, he used the Wagner Group to launch a rebellion against the Russian military leadership, again accusing the Defense Ministry of shelling Wagner soldiers. The Wagner Group captured the Russian city of Rostov-na-Donu and headed for Moscow and then stopped.

    By 24 June, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko had brokered an agreement with Putin and Prigozhin and the rebellion was called off. Prigozhin agreed to move to Belarus and criminal charges against him for rebellion were dropped. Wagner mutineers would not be prosecuted if they agreed to either sign contracts with the Defense Ministry or move to Belarus.  

    On 27 June, US President Joe Biden denied involvement in the revolt and Putin took more credit for preventing it. The Russian Federal Security Service (FSB) stopped its criminal investigation but allies of Prigozhin might be punished.

    Objectively, Putin’s image was altered by the mutiny, even if it was a failed attempt, noted The Week in Russia of Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) on 30 June. “Wagner forces essentially took control of Rostov-on-Don, a city of more than 1 million, and had advanced to within 200 kilometers of Moscow when Prigozhin abruptly called off the ‘march for justice’.” Ms. Tatyana Stanovaya, senior fellow at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote “This mutiny was so shocking that the regime appeared to many as near to collapse, which significantly undermines Putin’s ability to secure control in the eyes of the political class. There is also the notion that an “alternative future” that might have unfolded had things gone another way might not be the kind that millions who hope for change in Russia would welcome.”

    June 2023 

    War is deepening the divide between autocracies and democracies among 29 nations in the region stretching from Central Europe to Central Asia is the warning raised by Freedom House of Washington DC. In its 25th edition of the annual Nations in Transit report it points clearly at the Russian unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as the further cause of overall decline in democratic governance for the region. For the 19th consecutive year, democratic governance in the Nations in Transit region suffered an overall decline. Democracy scores declined in 11 out of the 29 countries. Seven countries earned improvements, however, as civic activists and democratic leaders continued to strive for better governance across the diverse region.

    May 2023  

    Bipartisan efforts in the United States of America to protect institutions and support of democracy and correct shortcomings of the economy, social aid, and rights of women and minorities are constantly undercut by the white, racist, bigoted wing of the Republican Party, the US Congress, and a number of state legislatures. While the Administration is eager to improve infrastructure at home and support Ukraine against Russian aggression, the Republican wing in the House of Representatives is investigating alleged or perceived failures and violations by the president, and members of his family and of the Administration.

    April 2023

    Relations between China and the United States of America are unbalanced. While there is a strong incentive to remain peaceful when their leaders are continuing profitable economic dealings, both governments are also pursuing political aims that undercut the positive balance. There was a recent show of unity by China and Russia when their leaders met while Russia is at a war with Ukraine and China expressed support for the Kremlin. China’s leader and the ruling party are sticking to Xi Jinping’s vision to become the preeminent power in East Asia and to pursue aggressively becoming a major world power. The US is sanctioning some Chinese companies, pushing back against Chinese moves in Africa and Latin America, and strengthening not only strategic ties with India, Japan, South Korea, the Philippines but boosting Australian naval power and visibly supporting Taiwan as demonstrated by the island leader’s visit to Washington.

    March 2023

    During recent years, the president of Türkiye has perseveringly amassed power. Likewise, he has increasingly become more intolerant of dissent as well as any criticism of him which he is quick to take before a court, charging personal insult. The latest blow against democracy was delivered on 13 October when the Grand National Assembly in which his Justice and Development (AKP) party and allies passed a disinformation law by 344 of 600 votes. The president signed it into law on 18 October. It criminalises what the authorities call disinformation and spreading “fake news,” without clearly defining it. Journalists, social media users and others are subject to imprisonment up to three years if found guilty. By the end of January, international media have increasingly condemned the residential authoritarianism. Turkey remains  rated ‘not free’ by Freedom House of New York NY.

     February 2023

    Good news at the start of 2023 was the quadrennial report on the 1987 Montreal Protocol that the Earth’s ozone layer, weakened by higher than normal levels of ozone-depleting chemicals from China in 2018, is expected to recover within the next four decades, according to the the Ozone Secretariat of the  United Nations (UN) Environment Program (UNEP) on 10 January. The report was prepared by scientists of a UN-backed panel.  

    The traumatic election of a United States Speaker of the House of Representatives is casting an unfortunate shadow on the next two years of acrimonious and probably self-defeating politics. After 15 rounds of voting over our days, the Californian Congressman of the Republican Party was finally elected on 6 January, not before being forced to make numerous concessions to the party’s far-right blocks. Following immediately were appointments of bloc members to new investigative committees to look into alledged misconduct of the government and steps to resist raising the public debt limit, lowering spending on safety net programs, and lowering taxes on business and millionaires.

    January 2023

     

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