Our 42nd year of publishing The International Observer
VIEWING THE WORLD
Türkiye’s
interest in joining organizations with strong Chinese and
Russian participation is not so much an ambition to
be widely represented in multi-nation groups but
determination to deepen ties with the East, declared
President Recep Erdoğan on 18 September.
Abroad,
China is showing its friendly face, especially in the
less developed world and in neighboring Central Asia, ready
to help, buy local products and generously deliver large
quantities of needed equipment, such as tractors, crane,
vehicles, and not forgetting special gifts for those in
power.
The
international world order is “under threat in a way we
haven’t seen since the Cold War.” The warning written
by the chiefs of the British and United States intelligence
agencies, the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) and the
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), was openly published in
the Financial Times in September. Both found that they have
not seen any evidence of the Russian president’s “grip on
power” weakening and see the rise of China as the main
intelligence and geopolitical challenge of the century.
Israel’s
policy toward the West Bank is dooming any prospect of a
two-state solution with the Palestinians, using
administrative and legal steps to change the
territory’s geography, the UN Secretary General declared on
17 July [July, p. 11655].
Hungary’s
Prime Minister Victor Orbán, currently
holding the six-month rotating presidency of the
European Council, is severely criticized by other
European Union (EU) members, allies of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) and by the United States
government. Issues of great concern are
·
His trip to Moscow in July and the conspiratorial appearance
of a secret
meeting with the Russian president and officials;
·
His opposition to Ukraine’s plan to join NATO and to NATO’s
military support of Ukraine;
·
His closing relationship with the former US president and
implied support of the Republican Party presidential
candidate;
·
Sowing chaos and pushing his anti-democratic foreign policy
vision;
·
Causing EU Commissioners to avoid or boycott informal
meetings held by the Council head;
·
Concerns that his government’s easing of visa restrictions
for Belarusians and Russians will
fuel espionage in the EU.
Abroad, China is
showing its friendly face, especially in the less
developed world and in neighboring Central Asia, ready to
help, buy local products and generously deliver large
quantities of needed equipment, such as tractors, crane,
vehicles, and not forgetting special gifts for those in
power.
As long as the conflict between
Israel and Palestine is continuing, the region will remain
unstable,
many of the world’s political leaders, observers, and press
analysts and commentators have known all along.
Iran
is also involved and arms deliveries from China,
North Korea and Russia are keeping the Islamic militants
supplied with arms and equipment. It is neither hidden nor
new that cultural and historical attitudes are not helping
to resolve the conflict.
For years, the observation has been around that the
situation could be changed and improved if new and realistic
leaders would rise. As long as Iran is ruled by
narrow-minded leaders and pro-democratic movements are
barred, the outlook is bleak.
Israel’s current
prime minister who proclaims that the Palestinian West Bank
is his “homeland” and because of numerous suspicious
dealings in the past is being prosecuted and will cling to
his position at all cost.
The Palestinian
Authority’s rule is hampered by the large number of militant
movements, some of them feuding with each other, an aging
leadership and an urgent and vital need for effective
governing.
There are also Iraq, Syria, and
Yemen with their problems which unfortunately do not stay
behind their borders but also affect regional peace and
progress.
Temporarily deflecting public attention from preparations for the Summer Olympics in France, the US presidential candidate of the Republic Party Donald John Trump Sr., campaigning in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 13 July around 1800 hours when addressing voters, escaped assassination when a bullet struck his right ear. The assailant was shot dead by the security team. On 18 July, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the nominee introduced his vice presidential candidate, John David “JD” Vance, junior US Senator of Ohio and lawyer. Not unexpected, on 21 July, President Joseph Robinette “Joe” Biden Jr. withdrew his candidacy and ended his presidential reelection campaign. By month’s end, Vice President Ms. Kamala Devi Harris, lawyer and 23 years younger than the incumbent, was assured of formal presidential nomination by the Democratic Party National Convention.
While the conflict raised
in the
Gaza Strip in October 2023 is feared widening
other conflagrations in the volatile Middle East and
large parts of the world are hit by heat waves, fires and
landslides, government attention also focused on an
attempted assassination of a presidential candidate
in the United States, withdrawal of its president
from possible reelection, and changes in France, Iran and
the United Kingdom:
·
The French prime minister resigned and is heading the
government temporarily until a new minister assumes office;
·
Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian,
a cardiac surgeon, took office as President of Iran;
and
·
Sir Keir Starmer of the Labour Party replaced the
Prime Minister of the Conservative Party in the United
Kingdom.
Temporarily
deflecting public attention from preparations for the
Summer Olympics in France, the US presidential candidate
of
the Republic Party Donald John Trump Sr.,
campaigning in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 13 July around 1800
hours when addressing voters, escaped assassination
when a bullet struck his right ear.
The assailant was shot dead by the security team. On
18 July, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee,
Wisconsin, the nominee introduced his vice presidential
candidate, John David “JD” Vance, junior US Senator
of Ohio and lawyer.
Not unexpected, on 21 July, President Joseph
Robinette “Joe” Biden Jr. withdrew his candidacy
and ended his presidential reelection campaign. By month’s
end, Vice President Ms. Kamala Devi Harris, lawyer
and 23 years younger than the incumbent, was assured of
formal presidential nomination by the Democratic Party
National Convention.
Currently public
attention seems to be sticking to the meeting of
Sino-Russian leaders and elections in Europe, Iran, and the
United States of America, as tension
and troubles are developing in West Africa.
Centered on the three countries where the military overthrew
civilian governments between 2000 and 2023, Burkina Faso,
Mali and Niger, concerns foremost occupy the Economic
Community of West African States that the return to civilian
governance keeps getting delayed and that the coups d’état
may be copied in neighboring countries, all taking place
while the influence and presence of Russian para-militaries
are spreading. Opposition politicians in Mali which lost its
elected government in 2020, took the initiative on 25 May
when they reminded the military that they failed to hold the
promised elections and that the new civilian transition
government formed in exile “is the only legitimate one in
Mali,” as reported by Radio France Internationale (RFI)
from Geneva.
President Xi
Jinping, between presenting himself
often in regions of the People’s Republic of China
and conducting inspections, is actively seeking to build
up and expand influence worldwide. New is the relentless
demonstration of military supremacy, especially around
Taiwan, but also his renewed effort to catch up with the
military power of the United States when he announced the
largest reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army as
reported by Xinhua News Agency on 19 April.
Part of this drive is to boost
relations with Central Asian countries, visibly supporting
the Russian Federation, helping African countries by buying
their resources, and presenting the Five Principles of
Coexistence on 28 June as a way of both convincing doubters
of good intentions and demonstrating them:
1.
Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity;
2.
Mutual non-aggression;
3.
Mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs;
4.
Equality and mutual benefit; and
5.
Peaceful coexistence.
At home, control over the
population and their attitudes and activities is tightened
under the pretext of enforcing public security and morality
although reports are now circulating about rising xenophobic
attitudes and utterances and their toleration by
authorities.
June 2024
Not unexpected, the
candidate in the November presidential election, blasted the
conviction in what he called a” political trial” and
reclaimed his innocence. His supporters of the extreme party
wing immediately started exploiting the situation by
painting their candidate a “martyr,” while other Republican
Party members were less vocal and a few either stood back
from criticizing the outcome or even agreed with it.
Obviously, a large number of citizens, convinced by the
number of pending legal actions against Trump, are waiting
for his disappearance from the 2024 campaign. Abroad, a
number of governments do not regret the jurors’ decisions
but refrain from intruding into a domestic US matter while
others, including extreme right-wing partisans and opponents
of US global policies and actions, are eager to take the
side of the convicted felon.
June 2024
In democratically governed countries, the verdict of a judge
or jury in a criminal case stands when it is reached, unless
on appeal it is changed and sometimes revoked. The former
President of the United States of America, Donald John
Trump Sr. (1917-1921),77, of the Republican Party, has
become the first US chief executive convicted of a crime.
Charged with
Not unexpected, the candidate in the
November presidential election, blasted the conviction in
what he called a” political trial” and reclaimed his
innocence. His supporters of the extreme party wing
immediately
started exploiting the situation by painting their candidate
a “martyr,” while other Republican Party members were less
vocal and a few either stood back from criticizing the
outcome or even agreed with it. Obviously, a large number of
citizens, convinced by the number of pending legal actions
against Trump, are waiting for his disappearance from the
2024 campaign. Abroad, a number of governments do not regret
the jurors’ decisions but refrain from intruding into a
domestic US matter while others, including extreme
right-wing partisans and opponents of US global policies and
actions, are eager to take the side of the convicted felon.
Europe must
make a new and strong effort to stay united, secure, and
democratic, the President of France Emmanuel Macron warned
when he addressed its leaders and people in Paris at La
Sorbonne university on 25 April. His admonition that Europe
must never be ’vassal’ of the United States of America
naturally raised concerns there and took some aback,
overlooking that democratic rule in the US is threatened by
homegrown extremists in elections in November. Without
mentioning that development, such a threat would also
negatively affect the other side of the Atlantic.
In the two-hour speech, the president
asked for a ‘credible’ defense strategy and a joint force,
to meet the migration challenge with dignity, raise
attention to the Mediterranean region and Africa, lead the
ecological transition, lead adaptation to the digital world,
and make Europe an economic and monetary power.
Public interest around the world
in international and domestic power plays by the People’s
Republic of China is remaining at an all-time high.
Equally significant is how its ruler since 2012, Xi
Jinping, 70, is presented.
The make-up of the political scene
in the new year, 2024, will be changing substantially,
considering the significance of 64 pending elections,
including those of the European Parliament, and in India,
Indonesia,
Ten major conflicts will continue
weakening global peace and stability, including those of
Israeli retaliation against the Palestinian attack of 7
October 2023 from inside Gaza, and the Russian aggression in
Ukraine. Others requiring constant attention, according to
the 2024 Watchlist of the International Crisis Group (ICG),
include the Middle East and the Sahel, US and China rivalry,
Armenia-Azerbaijan, Burma/Myanmar, Ethiopia, Haiti, and
Grave concern is rapidly rising about indications that
the continuing Israeli-Palestinian conflict is not only
causing more civilian casualties but opening the wider
region to resumption of dormant conflicts or starting new
ones. Governments in Jordan and Turkey and those of the
European Union (EU), France, United Kingdom, and the United
States are considering positive preventative steps to keep
Iran and the Youthi rebels in Yemen from exploiting the
turmoil and are anxious for Lebanon and the Red Sea becoming
less favorite targets.
December 2023
The renewed eruption of conflict in the Middle East over the
unresolved state of Palestinians–dragging on for more than
70 years –is practically touching public life almost
everywhere in the world,
a unique and not the normal reaction to wars.
November 2023
Palestinian new massive sneak attack on Israel echoes worldwide. Barely five months after a ceasefire between militants in Palestinian Gaza and Israeli troops, one of the major Palestinian militant groups, the Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS), on 7 October launched a major terror assault on Israel with thousands of rockets. Supported by the Gaza-based Islamic Jihad Movement of Palestine, the surprise attack immediately caused hundreds of Israeli civilian deaths and over a thousand of injured persons. Numerous Israelis were taken hostage and brutally mistreated, including children, reported news organizations. Israel’s government was taken by surprise, but formally declared war on the next day and ordered Gazans to leave the area, followed by continuing aerial bombing, missile attacks and artillery firing. Israel’s prime ministerr is rejecting dermands for a ceasefire and by month’s end Israeli forces are entering Gaza with orders to destroy HAMAS.
Away
from the region, especially in countries with substantial
numbers of
Jewish and Muslim residents and supporters, demonstrations
in defense of Israel and freedom and independence for
Palestinians are occurring almost daily, frequently marred
by clashes with opponents.
The General Secretary of the
Communist Party of China (CPC) and State Chairman Xi Jinping
is following in the footsteps of Iranian ayatollahs who use
the morality police to make sure Iranians, mainly women, are
not wearing foreign, speak un-Islamic apparel. The
People’s Republic is in the process to ban clothes that “are
detrimental
to the spirit of Chinese people” after the
Standing Committee of the 14th National People’s
Congress (NPC) reviewed public security laws during its 5th
session, 4-8 September. The
people have long been denied human rights and political
freedom and it is no surprising that this latest move is
widely criticized. From comments made, the main offender
appear to be Japanese kimonos and costumes that are
offending. Traditional clothing of ethnic groups have long
been suspect if they seemed to boost cultural differences.
Even before the planned changes, police have interfered and
arrested people as troublemakers for what they wore or
showedoff, such as unusual hair styles.
Since 12 September, both US president and ex-president
are facing hearings and trials.
The Speaker of the House of Representatives, giving in to
far-right Republican Party legislators, opened an inquiry
into impeaching President Joseph R. “Joe” Biden for charges,
so-far unspecified. Seen by many as revenge
for[JHW1]
prosecuting the former president, the move will become a
hunt for evidence, regardless how vague and weak.
Barely a month has gone by when
West Africa and the world faced a new military coup
d’état, on 30 August in Gabon]. The country is not
seriously threatened by insurgency and hosting French
military forces. But the prolonged presence of a head of
state for nearly 14 years – and by no means one of the
continent’s longest serving rulers – was one reason for some
Gabonese to wish for a change. Especially when the military
coup d’état on 30 August dramatically and ostentatiously
took effect within minutes of announcement of the second and
controversial reelection of the president. Some benefit from
oil revenues but poverty is widespread and political
recurring demonstrations and unrest are usually linked to
the presence and deep influence of just one family of
presidents. The latest junta head has promised to restore
civilian rule and holding free elections.
There is little doubt that the suspicious death of
the
chief of the Wagner Group mercenaries is seen by many in
Russia as a warning from the Kremlin to copycats not to
interfere. Observers abroad noted especially that reaction
to
Yevgeniy Prigozhin’s rebellion on 23 June
was first met with condemnation
and then with two months of feigned restraint and a public
effort not to appear bent on punishment.
August
The military took over another West African state.
After coping with four major Islamist insurgencies for the
past 16 years, Niger lost its elected President Mohamed
Bazoum, 63 years, and government on 26 July when the
presidential guard commander who had protected him since
2011 betrayed him and country. In the evening before 26 July
2023, the guard locked the presidential palace in Niamey
with president, family, and staff inside. On the 26th,
presidential palace and ministries were blocked off by
military vehicles and persons approaching were sent away,
according to Al Jazeera.
The Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS),
United Nations (UN, European Union (EU), France, Russia, and
the United States of America immediately called for the
president’s release and ceding of power.
On 27 July, the commander of Niger’s Defense and Security
Forces (FDS) changed his position and supported the military
coup d’état by the so-called National Council for the
Safeguarding of the Country (Conseil national pour la
sauvegarde de la patrie) (CNSP) and General Abdourahmane
Tchiani, 62 years, who appointed himself the council’s
President. On 28 July, he appeared on television and
declared that “Niger needed to change course to avoid the
gradual and inevitable demise.”
Later, newly found supporters of the president’s ouster
marched in the streets, denounced France, the country’s main
source of aid, waving Russian flags.
Niger is a poor and fragile country, located between Burkina
Faso and Mali, both headed by members of the military who
overthrown their elected governments during the last three
years. It is noteworthy that
Russia’s Wagner Group PMC (GV) mercenaries is active in
neighboring Mali since 2021 and may soon appear in Niger.
The country is also the world’s seventh biggest producer of
uranium, according to the World Nuclear Association (WNA), a
radioactive metal in great demand by Russia and others.
The Russian
Wagner Group PMC (GV) of mercenaries has not disappeared.
Nor has its head
Yevgeniy Viktorovich Prigozhin who although having been
investigated by Russian authorities for trying to mount a
coup d’état, reappeared in Russia and even was in contact
with President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. Those GV
mutineers who moved to Belarus [June 2023, p. 11189] are now
being used by the host’s president to threaten his
neighbors, especially Poland where borders were placed under
tighter surveillance to prevent the infiltration of
undercover GV mercenaries.
After decades of chilly relations between Greece and
Tűrkiye and a minimum of direct exchanges, their leaders
met on 12 June and agreed to resume talks in the coming
months, reported Al Jazeera from Vilnius. The Greek prime
minister and the Turkish president had met on the sidelines
of the summit meeting of the North Atlantic Treaty
Organization (NATO) where Turkey dropped its opposition to
membership of
Sweden.
A planned coup d’état in Russia that soldiers-for-hire, mercenaries, launched in the last week of June, was stopped. Its key target, Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin, President of the Russian Federation since 2012, lost no time on 26 June in an Address to citizens of Russia
-
To declare that “decisions
to neutralize the emerged threat were made instantly”;
-
Noting that the majority of Wagner Group “soldiers and
commanders” are also Russian Patriots;
-
Stressing that “steps were taken to avoid spilling
blood”;
-
To express gratitude to Wagner Group soldiers and
commanders who chose not to engage in fratricidal
bloodshed;
-
Offered the opportunity to continue service to Russia;
-
To keep his promise to those who want to go to Belarus;
and
-
Expressed his gratitude to Alexander
Lukashenko,
President of Belarus.
By mid-June, probably some Russian generals and US
intelligence had learned that Yevgeniy Viktorovich
Prigozhin, the head of the
Wagner Group PMC (GV) of mercenaries supporting Russia’s
attack on Ukraine and its conflicts in Africa and Syria, was
planning armed action against the military. By 23 June,
authorities had launched a criminal probe of him, and
Russian generals accused Prigozhin of trying to mount a coup
d’état on Putin. Prigozhin also accused the Minister of
Defense Sergei Shoigu of ordering a rocket attack on GV
field camps in Ukraine.
On 23 June, he used the Wagner Group to launch
a rebellion
against the Russian military leadership, again accusing the
Defense Ministry of shelling Wagner soldiers. The Wagner
Group captured the Russian city of Rostov-na-Donu and headed
for Moscow and then stopped.
By 24 June, Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko had
brokered an agreement with Putin and Prigozhin and the
rebellion was called off. Prigozhin agreed to move to
Belarus and criminal charges against him for rebellion were
dropped. Wagner mutineers would not be prosecuted if they
agreed to either sign contracts with the Defense Ministry or
move to Belarus.
On 27 June, US President Joe
Biden
denied involvement in the revolt and Putin took more credit
for preventing it. The Russian Federal Security Service
(FSB) stopped its criminal investigation but allies of
Prigozhin might be punished.
Objectively, Putin’s image was altered by the mutiny, even
if it was a failed attempt, noted The Week in Russia of
Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty (RFE/RL) on 30 June. “Wagner
forces essentially took control of Rostov-on-Don, a city of
more than 1 million, and had advanced to within 200
kilometers of Moscow when Prigozhin abruptly called off the
‘march for justice’.” Ms. Tatyana Stanovaya, senior fellow
at the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center wrote “This mutiny was
so shocking that the regime appeared to many as near to
collapse,
which significantly undermines Putin’s ability to secure
control in the eyes of the political class. There is also
the notion that an “alternative future” that might have
unfolded had things gone another way might not be the kind
that millions who hope for change in Russia would welcome.”
War is deepening the divide between autocracies and democracies among 29 nations in the region stretching from Central Europe to Central Asia is the warning raised by Freedom House of Washington DC. In its 25th edition of the annual Nations in Transit report it points clearly at the Russian unprovoked invasion of Ukraine as the further cause of overall decline in democratic governance for the region. For the 19th consecutive year, democratic governance in the Nations in Transit region suffered an overall decline. Democracy scores declined in 11 out of the 29 countries. Seven countries earned improvements, however, as civic activists and democratic leaders continued to strive for better governance across the diverse region.
May 2023
Bipartisan efforts in the United
States of America to protect institutions and support of
democracy
and correct shortcomings of the
economy, social aid, and rights of women and minorities
are constantly
undercut by the white, racist, bigoted wing of the
Republican Party, the US Congress, and a number of state
legislatures. While the Administration is eager to improve
infrastructure at home and support Ukraine against Russian
aggression, the Republican wing in the House of
Representatives is investigating alleged or perceived
failures and violations by the president, and members of his
family and of the Administration.
April
Relations between China and the
United States of America are unbalanced. While there is
a strong incentive to remain peaceful when their leaders are
continuing profitable economic dealings, both governments
are also pursuing political aims that undercut the positive
balance. There was a recent show of unity by China and
Russia when their leaders met while Russia is at a war with
Ukraine and China expressed support for the Kremlin. China’s
leader and the ruling party are sticking to Xi Jinping’s
vision to become the preeminent power in East Asia and to
pursue aggressively becoming a major world power. The US is
sanctioning some Chinese companies, pushing back against
Chinese moves in Africa and Latin America, and strengthening
not only strategic ties with India, Japan, South Korea, the
Philippines but boosting Australian naval power and visibly
supporting Taiwan as demonstrated by the island leader’s
visit to Washington.
March
During recent years, the president of Türkiye has
perseveringly amassed power. Likewise, he has
increasingly become more intolerant of dissent as well as
any criticism of him which he is quick to take before a
court, charging personal insult.
Good news at the start of 2023 was
the quadrennial report on the 1987 Montreal Protocol that
the Earth’s ozone layer, weakened by higher than
normal levels of ozone-depleting chemicals from China in
2018, is expected to recover within the next four
decades, according to the the Ozone Secretariat of the
United Nations (UN) Environment Program (UNEP) on 10
January. The report was prepared by scientists of a
UN-backed panel.
The traumatic election of a
United States Speaker of the House of Representatives is
casting an unfortunate shadow on the next two years of
acrimonious and probably self-defeating politics. After 15
rounds of voting over our days, the Californian Congressman
of the Republican Party was finally elected on 6 January,
not before being forced to make numerous concessions to the
party’s far-right blocks. Following immediately were
appointments of bloc members to new investigative committees
to look into alledged misconduct of the government and steps
to resist raising the public debt limit, lowering spending
on safety net programs, and lowering taxes on business and
millionaires.
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