Our 44th year of publishing The International Observer
VIEWING THE WORLD
After serving the mailing needs
of the kingdom for the past 400 years,
Denmark’s postal authority announced the end of the delivery
of letters. Apparently, today’s computer users in
Denmark rely only on e-mail, causing a drop in regular mail
to a few percent which those in charge think can use
commercial
services. Unanswered remain the postal needs of those
without computers, the sick and poor people.
The
ceasefire in the Gaza Strip is fragile and Israeli
forces in Lebanon and Syria are setting up outposts and
continue aerial and missile attacks and exchange fire.
Russian forces in Ukraine, using North Korean troops,
continue their attacks in Ukraine which counter-attacks,
incl. some targets in Russia.
In Burkina
Faso, Chad, Guinea, and Mali, military juntas uniformly
delayed and delayed promised elections intended to
transit back to democratic civilian rule in 2024, denying
citizens a say in the trajectory these countries, according
to Africa’s 2024 Security Trends infographic released 17
December 2024 by the Africa Center for Strategic Studies*.
This follows an established pattern in Africa where over 70
percent of leaders who evade term limits initially came to
power via military coup.
While in
Lisbon, on 27 November, United Nations Secretary General
António Guterres declared at a press conference that
the ceasefire agreement in Lebanon represents “the first
ray of hope for peace” in the regional war “amidst the
darkness of the last few months…. It is a moment of
great importance, especially for the civilians who were
paying an enormous price for the fact that this conflict is
not only dragging on, but is also gaining increasingly
worrying dimensions.”
He said
it is essential that those who signed the agreement fully
respect it, and that it paves the way for a political
solution to the Lebanese crisis. “At the same time, I can
assure you that UNIFIL, the United Nations Peacekeeping
Force, which has been in Lebanon, is now prepared to
contribute to the verification of this ceasefire with full
commitment."
Turning
to other conflicts, he underlined the need for a just peace
in Ukraine, with respect for the UN Charter, international
law, and the territorial integrity of the country.
The UN
chief reiterated his call for peace in Gaza, with an
immediate ceasefire, the immediate and unconditional release
of all hostages, and unrestricted humanitarian access to the
population “who have suffered in a way that I cannot recall
at any other time during my term.”
Authority of the United Nations
and its international criminal and justice courts are
challenged. The
International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague issued
arrest warrants for two Israeli officials and a Palestinian
jihadist commander on 21 November. The ICC Prosecutor
immediately appealed to all 124 states parties to live up to
their commitment to the 1998 Rome Statute by complying with
the judicial orders. The Israeli Prime Minister Binjamin
“Bibi” Netanyahu, 75, former Israeli Minister of
Defense Yoav Gallant, 66, and the Military Commander
of the Palestinian Islamic Resistance Movement (HAMAS)
Muhammed Deif, 59, are charged with war crimes
and crimes against humanity.
The US
Government immediately rejected the warrants claiming that
the court had no jurisdiction, reported The New York
Times. After the Hungarian prime minister invited the
Israeli prime minister and promising not to have him
arrested, the European Union (EU) notified its member states
that they are obliged to comply with ICC orders. The French
government, while declaring its adherence to the treaty,
later tried to suggest that since Israel is not party to the
ICC and that its prime minister is immune to arrest.
November
2024
Middle
East
71.4 percent of
7 percent of the world’s countries;
Asia
42.4 percent of 23 percent of the world’s countries;
Africa 40.0 percent of
28 percent of the world’s countries;
Americas
10.5 percent of 18 percent of the world’s countries;
Europe
4.8 percent of
23 percent of the world’s countries.
Depending on the outcome of the presidential and
congressional elections in the United States of America,
democracy as being practiced may end. Worse,
deterioration or end of a livable earth may be in store if
climate change is ignored, or politicians maintain that
there is no such pernicious development.
October
2024
Türkiye’s
interest in joining organizations with strong Chinese and
Russian participation is not so much an ambition to
be widely represented in multi-nation groups but
determination to deepen ties with the East, declared
President Recep Erdoğan on 18 September.
Abroad,
China is showing its friendly face, especially in the
less developed world and in neighboring Central Asia, ready
to help, buy local products and generously deliver large
quantities of needed equipment, such as tractors, crane,
vehicles, and not forgetting special gifts for those in
power.
The
international world order is “under threat in a way we
haven’t seen since the Cold War.” The warning written
by the chiefs of the British and United States intelligence
agencies, the Secret Intelligence Service (SIS) and the
Central Intelligence Agency (CIA), was openly published in
the Financial Times in September. Both found that they have
not seen any evidence of the Russian president’s “grip on
power” weakening and see the rise of China as the main
intelligence and geopolitical challenge of the century.
Israel’s
policy toward the West Bank is dooming any prospect of a
two-state solution with the Palestinians, using
administrative and legal steps to change the
territory’s geography, the UN Secretary General declared on
17 July [July, p. 11655].
Hungary’s
Prime Minister Victor Orbán, currently
holding the six-month rotating presidency of the
European Council, is severely criticized by other
European Union (EU) members, allies of the North Atlantic
Treaty Organization (NATO) and by the United States
government. Issues of great concern are
·
His trip to Moscow in July and the conspiratorial appearance
of a secret
meeting with the Russian president and officials;
·
His opposition to Ukraine’s plan to join NATO and to NATO’s
military support of Ukraine;
·
His closing relationship with the former US president and
implied support of the Republican Party presidential
candidate;
·
Sowing chaos and pushing his anti-democratic foreign policy
vision;
·
Causing EU Commissioners to avoid or boycott informal
meetings held by the Council head;
·
Concerns that his government’s easing of visa restrictions
for Belarusians and Russians will
fuel espionage in the EU.
Abroad, China is
showing its friendly face, especially in the less
developed world and in neighboring Central Asia, ready to
help, buy local products and generously deliver large
quantities of needed equipment, such as tractors, crane,
vehicles, and not forgetting special gifts for those in
power.
As long as the conflict between
Israel and Palestine is continuing, the region will remain
unstable,
many of the world’s political leaders, observers, and press
analysts and commentators have known all along.
Iran
is also involved and arms deliveries from China,
North Korea and Russia are keeping the Islamic militants
supplied with arms and equipment. It is neither hidden nor
new that cultural and historical attitudes are not helping
to resolve the conflict.
For years, the observation has been around that the
situation could be changed and improved if new and realistic
leaders would rise. As long as Iran is ruled by
narrow-minded leaders and pro-democratic movements are
barred, the outlook is bleak.
Israel’s current
prime minister who proclaims that the Palestinian West Bank
is his “homeland” and because of numerous suspicious
dealings in the past is being prosecuted and will cling to
his position at all cost.
The Palestinian
Authority’s rule is hampered by the large number of militant
movements, some of them feuding with each other, an aging
leadership and an urgent and vital need for effective
governing.
There are also Iraq, Syria, and
Yemen with their problems which unfortunately do not stay
behind their borders but also affect regional peace and
progress.
Temporarily deflecting public attention from preparations for the Summer Olympics in France, the US presidential candidate of the Republic Party Donald John Trump Sr., campaigning in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 13 July around 1800 hours when addressing voters, escaped assassination when a bullet struck his right ear. The assailant was shot dead by the security team. On 18 July, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, the nominee introduced his vice presidential candidate, John David “JD” Vance, junior US Senator of Ohio and lawyer. Not unexpected, on 21 July, President Joseph Robinette “Joe” Biden Jr. withdrew his candidacy and ended his presidential reelection campaign. By month’s end, Vice President Ms. Kamala Devi Harris, lawyer and 23 years younger than the incumbent, was assured of formal presidential nomination by the Democratic Party National Convention.
While the conflict raised
in the
Gaza Strip in October 2023 is feared widening
other conflagrations in the volatile Middle East and
large parts of the world are hit by heat waves, fires and
landslides, government attention also focused on an
attempted assassination of a presidential candidate
in the United States, withdrawal of its president
from possible reelection, and changes in France, Iran and
the United Kingdom:
·
The French prime minister resigned and is heading the
government temporarily until a new minister assumes office;
·
Dr. Masoud Pezeshkian,
a cardiac surgeon, took office as President of Iran;
and
·
Sir Keir Starmer of the Labour Party replaced the
Prime Minister of the Conservative Party in the United
Kingdom.
Temporarily
deflecting public attention from preparations for the
Summer Olympics in France, the US presidential candidate
of
the Republic Party Donald John Trump Sr.,
campaigning in Butler, Pennsylvania, on 13 July around 1800
hours when addressing voters, escaped assassination
when a bullet struck his right ear.
The assailant was shot dead by the security team. On
18 July, at the Republican National Convention in Milwaukee,
Wisconsin, the nominee introduced his vice presidential
candidate, John David “JD” Vance, junior US Senator
of Ohio and lawyer.
Not unexpected, on 21 July, President Joseph
Robinette “Joe” Biden Jr. withdrew his candidacy
and ended his presidential reelection campaign. By month’s
end, Vice President Ms. Kamala Devi Harris, lawyer
and 23 years younger than the incumbent, was assured of
formal presidential nomination by the Democratic Party
National Convention.
Currently public
attention seems to be sticking to the meeting of
Sino-Russian leaders and elections in Europe, Iran, and the
United States of America, as tension
and troubles are developing in West Africa.
Centered on the three countries where the military overthrew
civilian governments between 2000 and 2023, Burkina Faso,
Mali and Niger, concerns foremost occupy the Economic
Community of West African States that the return to civilian
governance keeps getting delayed and that the coups d’état
may be copied in neighboring countries, all taking place
while the influence and presence of Russian para-militaries
are spreading. Opposition politicians in Mali which lost its
elected government in 2020, took the initiative on 25 May
when they reminded the military that they failed to hold the
promised elections and that the new civilian transition
government formed in exile “is the only legitimate one in
Mali,” as reported by Radio France Internationale (RFI)
from Geneva.
President Xi
Jinping, between presenting himself
often in regions of the People’s Republic of China
and conducting inspections, is actively seeking to build
up and expand influence worldwide. New is the relentless
demonstration of military supremacy, especially around
Taiwan, but also his renewed effort to catch up with the
military power of the United States when he announced the
largest reorganization of the People’s Liberation Army as
reported by Xinhua News Agency on 19 April.
Part of this drive is to boost
relations with Central Asian countries, visibly supporting
the Russian Federation, helping African countries by buying
their resources, and presenting the Five Principles of
Coexistence on 28 June as a way of both convincing doubters
of good intentions and demonstrating them:
1.
Mutual respect for sovereignty and territorial integrity;
2.
Mutual non-aggression;
3.
Mutual non-interference in each other’s internal affairs;
4.
Equality and mutual benefit; and
5.
Peaceful coexistence.
At home, control over the
population and their attitudes and activities is tightened
under the pretext of enforcing public security and morality
although reports are now circulating about rising xenophobic
attitudes and utterances and their toleration by
authorities.
June 2024
Not unexpected, the
candidate in the November presidential election, blasted the
conviction in what he called a” political trial” and
reclaimed his innocence. His supporters of the extreme party
wing immediately started exploiting the situation by
painting their candidate a “martyr,” while other Republican
Party members were less vocal and a few either stood back
from criticizing the outcome or even agreed with it.
Obviously, a large number of citizens, convinced by the
number of pending legal actions against Trump, are waiting
for his disappearance from the 2024 campaign. Abroad, a
number of governments do not regret the jurors’ decisions
but refrain from intruding into a domestic US matter while
others, including extreme right-wing partisans and opponents
of US global policies and actions, are eager to take the
side of the convicted felon.
June 2024
In democratically governed countries, the verdict of a judge
or jury in a criminal case stands when it is reached, unless
on appeal it is changed and sometimes revoked. The former
President of the United States of America, Donald John
Trump Sr. (1917-1921),77, of the Republican Party, has
become the first US chief executive convicted of a crime.
Charged with
Not unexpected, the candidate in the
November presidential election, blasted the conviction in
what he called a” political trial” and reclaimed his
innocence. His supporters of the extreme party wing
immediately
started exploiting the situation by painting their candidate
a “martyr,” while other Republican Party members were less
vocal and a few either stood back from criticizing the
outcome or even agreed with it. Obviously, a large number of
citizens, convinced by the number of pending legal actions
against Trump, are waiting for his disappearance from the
2024 campaign. Abroad, a number of governments do not regret
the jurors’ decisions but refrain from intruding into a
domestic US matter while others, including extreme
right-wing partisans and opponents of US global policies and
actions, are eager to take the side of the convicted felon.
Europe must
make a new and strong effort to stay united, secure, and
democratic, the President of France Emmanuel Macron warned
when he addressed its leaders and people in Paris at La
Sorbonne university on 25 April. His admonition that Europe
must never be ’vassal’ of the United States of America
naturally raised concerns there and took some aback,
overlooking that democratic rule in the US is threatened by
homegrown extremists in elections in November. Without
mentioning that development, such a threat would also
negatively affect the other side of the Atlantic.
In the two-hour speech, the president
asked for a ‘credible’ defense strategy and a joint force,
to meet the migration challenge with dignity, raise
attention to the Mediterranean region and Africa, lead the
ecological transition, lead adaptation to the digital world,
and make Europe an economic and monetary power.
Public interest around the world
in international and domestic power plays by the People’s
Republic of China is remaining at an all-time high.
Equally significant is how its ruler since 2012, Xi
Jinping, 70, is presented.
The make-up of the political scene
in the new year, 2024, will be changing substantially,
considering the significance of 64 pending elections,
including those of the European Parliament, and in India,
Indonesia,
Ten major conflicts will continue
weakening global peace and stability, including those of
Israeli retaliation against the Palestinian attack of 7
October 2023 from inside Gaza, and the Russian aggression in
Ukraine. Others requiring constant attention, according to
the 2024 Watchlist of the International Crisis Group (ICG),
include the Middle East and the Sahel, US and China rivalry,
Armenia-Azerbaijan, Burma/Myanmar, Ethiopia, Haiti, and
GLOBAL SURVEY REFERENCE AIDS
International & Political Terms
Militant Organizations Abbreviations
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