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VIEWING THE WORLD
Trying to accept the Afghan withdrawal. Diplomats
abroad have learned earlier that a series of policies and
practices of the new Administration in Washington are not
that different from the ham-handed predecessor. US citizens
were overjoyed that gaffes, incompetence and lack of
understanding by the president and some of his associates
had finally stopped.
Eleven months later, while still enjoying its early
widespread acceptance, piece by piece it becomes clear that
the new White House either is unaware of the impressions it
leaves when it continues former policies, even strengthens
them, or has changed its mind about changing what it
rejected just an few months earlier. Make America Great
Again may not be the motto in Washington but important
issues demanding a new direction are not being served by
more “America First” and “Buy America.”
Just look at recent developments: It would be ironic
and tragic if in some later years the presidencies of both
Trump and Biden would be viewed as the period when the role
of the United States as the world’s spearhead to fight for
democracy and freedom were diminished and when its value as
a dependable, reliable ally would be questioned.
Obviously every country’s leaders and governments
are determined to spare its people the loss of human life.
Then again taking the role of protector, even in a colonial
role, or nowadays as defender or rescuer, demands sacrifice,
including human lives.
Many Americans have their own idea and version of
history. It is relegated to the past with commemoration of
gaining independence, fighting a civil war, and engaging in
two World Wars. The idea of becoming involved in someone
else’s conflict for the sake of safeguarding democracy or
the freedom of people is seen as heroic but it must be
accomplished satisfactorily and quickly. Drawing it out over
generations while taking losses because with patience a
rewarding result will be achieved is not the way many
Americans see history.
Any loss of life is regrettable, but outside the US,
there is consternation. More importance seems to be attached
to the much smaller number of casualties in Afghanistan
while less attention is paid to the preventable
12,000-15,000 deaths a year from unchecked use of firearms
by citizens at home.
Aiding US defending Taiwan – Australian Minister of Defense Peter Dutton,
on 12 November, said it “would be inconceivable that we
wouldn’t support the US in an action if the US chose” to
militarily defend Taiwan, reported
The Australian.
The US is reorganizing its intelligence focus on China. On 7 October, the Director of the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA),
William Joseph Burns,
called the Beijing government “the most important
geopolitical threat we face in the 21st century,”
according to abc.net.
To counter China’s influence, the CIA has formed a top-level
China Mission Center. The CIA also announced it is creating
a Transnational and Technology Mission Center and the new
position of chief technology officer to better address
issues of global competitiveness, including emerging
technology, economic security, global health, and climate
change, reported Voice
of America (VOA).
In at least 24 countries, presidents will be elected in 2022. Some will be chosen directly by voters, others by legislatures. In
addition to significant polls in Brazil, France, Italy, the
Philippines, and Sudan, others will be held in Albania,
Austria, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Colombia, Costa Rica,
Egypt, Germany, Hungary, India, Iraq, Kenya, Korea (ROK),
Mali, Nauru, Serbia, Slovenia, Switzerland, Timor Leste, and
Vanuatu.
The Serb Republic of the Federation of Bosnia and Herzegovina and its
member of the B&H Presidency are continuing criticizing and
disparaging actions by the UN High Representative and attempting to
pull out of the federal system [Oct. 2021,
p. 10379]. Now B&H prosecutors are investigating the
Bosnian Serb member Milorad
Dodik for
“undermining the constitutional order, according to
RadioFreeEurop/RadioLiberty.
The appearance of the extreme right-wing Éric Zemmour, 63,
author and TV personality, has suddenly injected a new
element in the next French presidential election
with rising polls but without being a candidate. Stressing
French values and Christian civilization and appealing to
French white voters who are nostalgic about the past, he has
forced the top contenders to change their strategies. If he
should qualify for the runoff round, there is the danger
that he could split the conservative vote, say poll
watchers.
President Vladimir Putin has never made a secret of believing that the
collapse and disappearance of the Soviet Union was a
historical error. Ruling the Russian Federation under a more or less autocratic regime,
he is starting to soft pedal the Union’s most outrageous
crimes and deny some of the lesser ones in the hope of
restoring its strategic place and power. It all falls into
place: jailing or poisoning democratic Russians working
toward an open and free nation, closing foundations and
memorials depicting Soviet crimes, undercutting close former
republics of the USSR, such as Belarus and Ukraine, Georgia
and Moldovia, and working toward better control of the
former Central Asian Soviet republics.
Not only his speeches but Xi’s portraits too receive most prominent and
exclusive display.
Readers of the China mainland press have
always noted that a preponderance of covering the country’s
leaders is devoted to the General Secretary of the Communist
Party of China (CPC) and the President of the People’s
Republic (PRC), Xi Jinping. In speeches, nearly all senior
CPC members after giving credit to the party talk about Xi,
praise not only his leadership but exhort their listeners to
adhere to the guidance of Xi
Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New
Era.
When it comes to
personal proposals and thoughts, he is again almost the only
subject. Even his reading habits, world masterpieces, such
as Confucius and Tolstoy, stand by themselves.
Observers at Radio Free Asia (RFA) found that an increase in
the sale of Xi’s portraits and the sudden popping up of his
extra-large portraits along those of Mao Zedong in the
streets of the Tibetan capital of Lhasa are a good
indication that party and Xi re getting ready for his
re-election for a third term as China’s leader at the 20th
Party Congress in 2022.
December 2021
The dispute over the future of the Western Sahara, once
under Spanish colonial control, is being stirred up again.
Since 1976, the Popular Front for the Liberation of Sagia
el-Hamra and Rio de Oro, the Polisario, claims the territory
and formed the Sahrawi Arab Democratic Republic (SADR) to
govern there. Morocco never accepted it and continues to
defend its claim. While the United Nations (UN) maintains a
mission since the 1991 cease-fire to hold a referendum,
foremost Algeria but also other African states support
Polisario. Now, in a televised speech on 7 November, King
Mohamed VI of
Morocco, repeated that Western Sahara “is not negotiable,”
immediately raising tension with Algeria. But he left it
open that in order to reach a peaceful solution of the
dispute, the kingdom would negotiate, reported
Al-Jazeera.
The Ukrainian president, on 26 November, told a news
conference that security services had overheard Russian and
Ukrainian plotters planning a coup d’état,
reported HB (NV)
magazine. Since then no further clarification or details
have become available. Given the current state of relations
between Ukraine and Russia, incl. threats about a Russian
invasion, it remains uncertain whether there is a plot or
tension is driving over-reaction.
November 2021
Afghanistan is quickly burdened by new serious problems after the Taliban
took over in August and lowered one phase of country-wide
violence. Corruption in government and society,
disharmonious relations and rivalry between ethnic groups,
and widespread poverty has hampered acceptable government
and economic development for decades. Now that the Islamic
Emirate is in charge, shortcomings have multiplied and
past and new behavior of the ruling Taliban make
matters worse not only between them and their former
opposing countrymen but in relations with the outside world
and international organizations which are desperately needed
for humanitarian, economic and financial help.
The interim government consists of Taliban members,
some sought as criminals, no former government experts, no
women, and all without reliable evidence of higher
education. The moment they ended fighting, attacks,
bombings, more destruction and death are being caused by
jihadist militant groups, including those affiliated with
al-Qa’ida or the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant
(ISIL)-Da’esh (violating the 2020 Doha Agreement with the
United States banning cooperation or support of terrorists).
More basic than continuing insecurity are
impoverishment, growing shortage of food, and the continuing
COVID-19 pandemic. Large humanitarian aid outlays are needed
and while some are forthcoming, incl. from the United
States, the Taliban’s way of distributing it to their own or
to those supporting the new rulers, does not gain them any
sympathy with the United Nations and others. Nor do acts of
retaliatory violence, punishing demonstrators, banning women
from government and universities and excluding girls and
women from school and colleges.
Next to al-Qa’ida (the Base) which is banned and designated
as a terrorist organization in many major countries,
Islamic State in Iraq
and the Levant (ISIL) (Da’esh) (al-Dawla al-Islamiya
fil-Iraq wa al-Sham), is now seen by governments as the
major growing threat of violence in Africa, according to the Secretary of
State for Foreign & Commonwealth Affairs of the United
Kingdom. Highly concerned, he told participants of a Global
Coalition against Da’esh meeting in Rome on 27 June that the
British government is providing new funding to counter the
insurgents in the Lake Chad Basin and encourage them to
leave the Islamic State. ISIL formed in 1999 as a Sunni
group oriented toward Wahhabism, became first substantially
engaged in insurgencies in Iraq in 2003 and later in Syria.
Since about 2014, Da’esh has developed into a major
insurgent force in West Africa, especially Burkina Faso,
Cameroon, Chad, Congo (DR), Mali, Niger, and Nigeria. Some
of its groups and affiliates are also present in Egypt,
Libya, Tunisia, Mozambique and Somalia (affiliate).
Observers of the increasingly autocratic government of
Hungary are concerned about apparent steps by its Prime
Minister Viktor
Mihály Orbán
and the ruling Federation of Young Democrats-Civic Alliance
(FiDeSz-MPSz) of moving public assets, incl. most from
higher education institutions, from government to private
foundations. New elections will be held in 2022 and the
position of Orbán could be substantially challenged by a
newly formed opposition coalition. The shift of public
assets which began in May, according to
EURACTIV, could ensure that FiDeSZ could “maintain important
positions in the event of a defeat.” The transfers can only
be restored by a two-thirds majority and a number of
presidents of the receiving institutions are appointed by
the prime minister for a nine-year term.
Mexico’s president is planning to give the state control of
a major part of the energy market
and total control over the production of lithium, reported
The Financial Times.
An amendment to the constitution, requiring approval by
two-thirds in both houses of Congress, was submitted on 1
October. The change, if approved, also would eliminate
independent regulators.
Part of moving toward independence of the Bougainville
Island from Papua New Guinea by 2027 is the search for a new
capital. Because of the devastating civil war for independence between 1988 and
1998, the island capital was moved from Arawa (1975-1997) on
the southern east side to the present interim location Buka
Town on the northern Buka Island. It lies across from
northern Bougainville, separated by the Buka Passage,
between 300 and 1,070 meters wide without a bridge but with
ferry service. A parliamentary committee was touring the
Autonomous Region in late September, reported
Radio New Zealand
International (RNZI) and found a strong preference for
the former Arawa.
Tanzania remains under autocratic rule under the new
president, characterized by banned rallies, suspension of
newspapers, prosecution of opposition
Party for Democracy
& Progress (Chadema)
leaders and members and even of dissenters within the ruling
Revolutionary Party of Tanzania (Chama Cha Mapinduzi/(CCM). The Africa
Center for Strategic Studies of the US Department of Defense
in Washington DC, warned in September that “Tanzanians today
live in a climate increasingly filled with fear and
reticence to exercise their rights lest they run afoul of a
raft of new restrictive laws or suffer physical retribution.
On 21 July, police arrested Chairman Freeman
Mbow and ten
senior members of Chadema, charged them with ‘terror-related
crimes’ and is continuing the trial. In August, the
Uhuru newspaper of
CCM was suspended, followed by a 30-day suspension on 6
September of
Raia Mwema, a leading Swahili-language weekly, for allegedly
publishing false information and deliberate incitement,
Reuters reported. The autocratic rule began with Tanzania’s former
President Dr. John Pombe Joseph
Magufuli in 2015,
continued throughout his rule until his death in March 2021
and is continuing under his successor Ms. Samia Hassan
Suluhu (born 27 January 1960), CCM, since 19 March 2021.
October 2021
Return to military dictatorship
in Brazil has become a renewed topic this year
at home and abroad. Fed by the mismanagement of public
health at a time when only 21 percent of the population is
fully immunized against COVID-19 after half-a-million have
died, the presidency of Jair
Bolsonaro is receiving low ratings in opinion polls. The pandemic is
not the only source of criticism but so is the often erratic
and chaotic style of administration. His excuses now start
with those who oppose him, Supreme Court judges, the press,
and the use of electronic voting. More than once, the first
time some 20 years ago, Bolsonaro has praised the military,
the 1964 coup, and strongly hinted that he together with the
generals could run the country better than under the
democratic rule. That is not preventing president and
military declaring in the same breath that “the people can
count on the armed forces to defend democracy and freedom.”
Return to military dictatorship in Brazil has become a
renewed topic this year
at home and abroad. Fed by the mismanagement of public
health at a time when only 21 percent of the population is
fully immunized against COVID-19 after half-a-million have
died, the presidency of Jair
Bolsonaro is receiving low ratings in opinion polls. The pandemic is
not the only source of criticism but so is the often erratic
and chaotic style of administration. His excuses now start
with those who oppose him, Supreme Court judges, the press,
and the use of electronic voting. More than once, the first
time some 20 years ago, Bolsonaro has praised the military,
the 1964 coup, and strongly hinted that he together with the
generals could run the country better than under the
democratic rule. That is not preventing president and
military declaring in the same breath that “the people can
count on the armed forces to defend democracy and freedom.”
Bolsonaro, graduated from a military academy and for the next 11 years
served in the army and moved to the reserve with the rank of
captain. Since 1989 he has been active in politics but never
omits to mention his devotion and preference for the
military. Its presence in the administration, never low
before the incumbent, has increased dramatically. From the
vice president, a former general, to some 6,000 military
personnel, are holding positions normally reserved for
civilians. A number of cabinet ministers are senior military
officers.
September 2021
On
1 July at Tian’anmen Square in Beijing, CPC General
Secretary and President of the People’s Republic of China
(PRC) Xi Jinping
observed the Centenary Ceremony of the Communist Party of
China (CPC) and addressed the 95,148-million party
members nation-wide while equally admonishing the 1,400
million population, reported
People’s Daily. In nine
commandments he demanded that
August 2021
Before the US military has left Afghanistan,
the United States
helped form a new “diplomatic platform” to remain involved
in Afghanistan. The quadrilateral group of Afghanistan,
Pakistan, Uzbekistan and the United States agreed to stay
focused on regional connectivity and held its first meeting
on 15-16 July in Tashkent. The governments agreed to meet in
the coming months to determine with mutual consensus how to
shape cooperation. While the initial focus is on
Afghanistan, the leader of the US delegation, Dr. Elizabeth
Sherwood-Randall,
Presidential Assistant for Homeland Security, expressed the
government’s commitment to promote security, prosperity and
regional connectivity in Central Asia. On 15 July, the US
also took part in a regular meeting of foreign ministers of
Central Asia and the US (C5+1) in the Uzbek capital on the
stability of Afghanistan and institutional strengthening of
C5+1, reported The
Astana Times. Senior leaders of Afghanistan and the
Taliban Islamic Militia met on 17-18 July in Doha and agreed
to speed up negotiations on an inclusive political
settlement.
July 2021
Unresolved
situations in the Middle East and Central Asia are keeping the rest of the world from turning
attention to cope with the continuing change in climate,
limiting the spread of arms, and protecting from corona
virus and other ills. A new president in Iran and the latest
Israeli government do not appear willing to stop meddling in
neighboring Sunni countries nor to pull out occupation
troops from Palestine and help to make the two states a
reality. Leaving Afghanistan without effective allied help
and backing up its ailing government against the
intensifying onslaught from the Islamist Taliban insurgents
may end one war but continue in new conflicts, especially
with neighboring Pakistan.
Five months after
Burma’s generals waged a coup d’état, ousted the elected government, and detained officials, they have not
shown any signs of relenting or preparing for return to
democratic rule and observation of human rights. With the
quiet backing of China and Russia, the generals are flouting
international and regional protests and sanctions but have
misjudged internal resistance. Anti-coup demonstrations are
widespread and pro-democracy elements of the former
government set up a National Unity Government (NUG)
with a budding military force and have allied with armed
ethnic organizations, all pointing dangerously to the
outbreak of civil war.
June 2021
The White House is
visibly concerned about the rise of hostile acts against the
United States from Russia, sometimes carried out by
third parties, especially the committing of cyber crimes and
spreading of disinformation. While some of this activity has
occurred before the new president took office, especially
the interference with the elections, causing a strategic
fuel pipeline to come to a halt and hacking an agency of the
State Department, happened just recently. Testing a new
president was practiced by Nikita Khrushchev when he
met with John F. Kennedy in Vienna in June 1961 and
following up with deploying missiles in Cuba. Joe Biden
and Vladimir Putin are about to meet in Geneva in
June. Unlike the situation 60 years ago when the US had the
backing of strong alliances, political as well as military,
the last president not only neglected allies but downgraded
international relations under his America First campaign and
openly preferred the world’s dictators and strongmen, seeing
them as effective
rulers.
Worldwide spreading of corona virus (COVID-19)
is continuing with high number of infections in the United
States of America, India, Brazil, United Kingdom, Russia,
France, Spain, Italy, Turkey, Germany and Colombia. In an
additional 10 countries there are at least one million
cases, according to the center for Systems Science and
Engineering (CSSE), Johns Hopkins University.
February 2021
The United
States of America are seen as again shouldering
international obligations and responsibilities under the new elected president after four years of diminishing,
shedding and weakening them around the world. Immediately
after taking office, the president again accepted the 2015
Paris Agreement on climate change, indicated willingness to
extend
the nuclear arms
limitation under 2011
Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty
(START) with Russia and to resume cooperation with the World Health
Organization (WHO).
Indications are strengthening that former President of the Congo (DR)
Major General Joseph Kabange Kabila (2001-2019) is
planning to be a presidential candidate in 2023,
according to former staff.
Italy is searching
for its next government
after Prime
Minister Prof. Giuseppe Conte, serving since 2018,
stepped down over an internal feud over COVID-19 funds.
Former President of the European Central Bank Dr. Mario
Draghi was asked by Italy’s president to form a new
government.
January 2021